The following article is based on my own interpretation of the said events and/ or publicly available information. Any material borrowed from published and unpublished sources has been appropriately referenced. I will bear the sole responsibility for anything that is found to have been copied or misappropriated or misrepresented in the following post.
Ankit Baghel, MBA 2016-18, Vinod Gupta School of Management, IIT Kharagpur
The state of Uttar Pradesh is well known for its dominance in national politics.Uncertainty is one of the trademark in its poll results. The state has proved already that it changes mood very fast based on the perceptions built by different political parties. The same uncertainty shocked everyone when it voted for BJP in lok sabha elections of 2014. The state has seen the tenure of both Mualayam singh yadav and CM Akhilesh yadav from samajwadi, and it has observed that both of them firmly believes in caste politics. For the past decade,it had not been very difficult for samajwadi party to be in power due to its trustworthy yadav vote-bank .Now,the party itself has bifurcated in two different ideologies fighting against each other. This split has given a golden chance to both BJP and BSP to prove their majority.
BSP, party formed with the ideology of upliftment of lower class has lost its reputation due to its inability to show any improvement in their status, when it was in power.The party seems to be more concerned with holding cash reserves then spending them for social upliftment. Due to its style of working it has lost a large number of loyal lower caste voters and thereby leaving the party with few alternatives.
BJP, perceived relatively as neutral party is also found to have inclination towards high class and upper middle class, since the lower class and lower middle cast constitute a major proportion of Uttar pradesh population , it has faced defeat many a times. Due to its strong companionship with RSS, it has not been able to prove itself as a party functioning independently with the mission of development as claimed by its leaders.The leaders of this party has been widely criticized due to their hindutva agenda inclination.This inclination does not go well with religions other than those practicing hinduism , especially with muslim population which constitute about 20% of the state population.
May it be Samajwadi party with loyal yadav voters , BSP having loyal lower caste voter or BJP having the image of PM Modi, the result of poll depends to a large extent on muslim voters since that is one section of state population which can shift from one party to other based on the perceptions built before them .The victory of BJP in lok sabha 2014 elections shows that even with loyal voters in the hands,the parties cannot be certain of their grip in state polls. There is high chance that if a party can come out with vision and mission for development of state,by retaining its loyal customer base with minimal offense to the neutral voters will sit at the crown of UP politics in the coming polls.