Pre-Mortem of Demonitization

The following article is based on my own interpretation of the said events and/ or publicly available information. Any material borrowed from published and unpublished sources has been appropriately referenced. I will bear the sole responsibility for anything that is found to have been copied or misappropriated or misrepresented in the following post.

Vaibhav Krishna Kumar, MBA 2016-18, Vinod Gupta School of Management, IIT Kharagpur

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This has been in fashion off late in our country to do media trials of events even before the final outcome.  Recently, it was experienced in the case of demonetization where it was widely propagated that the Modi Government’s move was a huge political and economic blunder even though it had only been a week or two since the announcement of Demonetization. The government had accepted that there will be some discomfort to the people during the 50 days period and that once this period was over things will be normal. But according to what was shown in the media it seemed as if the people were facing a lot of problems and that the time and efforts that they were sacrificing would earn them no gain. Political pundits were expressing disappointment talking about the queues outside the ATMs and in Banks even though none of them were a part of any such queues while the Economic experts were busy predicting why the move would fail and slow down economy.

My point here is in order to look at the political consequences of demonetization and how the people of India have seen this move we should wait till UP elections as in democracy final verdict regarding the success of any policy remains in the hands of the people who vote and UP being a state which has always played a big role in the national politics would give us a clear idea about whether the common mass liked this move or not despite the obvious discomforts. Similarly the Economic benefits or failure of demonetization will unfold in the months to come as we look at the various indices indicating economic health. For now, the fact that money is easily available in ATMs and the queues are long gone should be enough for the media to wait before giving a final verdict on any future policies.

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