The following article is based on my own interpretation of the said events and/ or publicly available information. Any material borrowed from published and unpublished sources has been appropriately referenced. I will bear the sole responsibility for anything that is found to have been copied or misappropriated or misrepresented in the following post.
Aman Sadha, MBA 2016-18, Vinod Gupta School of Management, IIT Kharagpur
Arun Jaitley, the finance minister, will be presenting the Union Budget on February 1, a month before the usual date and barely three months after the Black Swan event of the Modi Government. The global uncertainties, the Trump Factor, Brexit issues, in addition with no measure of the long tail of demonetization presents a daunting situation in front of the chief statistician of the country.
As Jaitley has already mentioned in the interviews that the economy is slowing down, the path ahead for the Minister looks turbulent. Especially when he has to merge the railway budget in the fiscal plan- which was presented separately for last 92 years- everyone’s eyes are fixed on the file he will be put in front of country in a weeks’ time.
We are well aware that after the godly monsoon rains, the single biggest factor that impacts our economy is the international prices of the oil. Oil prices has been a respite to the Modi Government since he took office in 2014, but the volatile nature of both these factors are enough to trouble the minds of even the sharpest. International Market has seen recent rise in oil prices and a barrel of is expected to reach a price of $65 in 2018 compared with $40 in April’16.
With the cushion of oil taken off, and the pangs of demonetization hovering on top the government must find ways to generate revenue required to sustain the infrastructure development and other ambitious plans floated by the PM. The buoyancy seen in tax collection in the recent past and the voluntary income disclosures are the comforting factor for the Finance Minister. We need to wait and see how he handles the issues around and come on top of them to take our country forward amidst all the uncertainties.