The following article is based on my own interpretation of the said events. Any material borrowed from published and unpublished sources has been appropriately referenced. I will bear the sole responsibility for anything that is found to have been copied or misappropriated or misrepresented in the following post.
Pratikshit Gupta, MBA 2015-17, Vinod Gupta School of Management, IIT Kharagpur
The India Meteorological Department has predicted an above average monsoon season in 2016. This is good news for the country which is currently experiencing a crippling heatwave and many places are struggling in a drought. The situation is so bad in Latur, in the Maharashtra state, that on Tuesday a special train was commissioned to deliver 5 lakh liters of water and another has been flagged off for the same
Over the last two years, the rains have been below average. This is thought to be largely due to El Nino. El Nino is the slight warming of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean, and is known to subdue the rains across India. The current El Nino conditions peaked in January, and are now fading. It is predicted that La Nina will emerge by the end of the year. La Nina is the opposite of El Nino – the cooling of the surface of the Pacific, and often enhances the rains over India.
Monsoon forecasts by the Indian Meteorological Department have been wrong in the past. In 2009, the monsoon was predicted to bring average amounts of rain, but the monsoon was actually the worst in nearly four decades, with a deficiency of more than 20 percent.
The monsoon rains are expected to start to start in June, and the country’s 263 million farmers will be closely watching the skies.